India's Economy and ETF Face New Challenges

By Carl Delfeld of the Chartwell ETF Advisor
India’s government, economy and stock market tracked by the new WisdomTree exchange-traded fund (EPI)face a series of challenges which could dent India's growth and attraction to global ETF investors.
First, higher interest rates have taken the edge off consumer spending in the past year at the same time as exporters have suffered from an appreciating rupee. India’s finance minister, Mr. Chidambaram, forecast growth of 8.7 per cent in the financial year ending March 31, down from 9.6 per cent the previous year according to Jo Johnson of the Financial Times in New Delhi.
Second, inflation is picking up and will likely worsen as political pressure for more spending accelerate in the election year of 2009. The Congress party’s poor performance in all five state assembly elections last year has increased pressure on a bigger budget deficit than warranted.
This will lead to a worsening of debt problems. Expect plenty of handouts aimed at softening the image of widening inequalities between rich and poor, urban and rural areas and upper and lower castes. Including off-balance-sheet expenditures on oil, food and fertilizer subsidies, Morgan Stanley estimates the underlying central government deficit in 2007-08 will be 5.4% of gross domestic product, rather than the government’s official estimate of 3.2%.
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