
Money and politics are crossing in France as the first stage of its Presidential election approaches and investors look ahead to decide what impact it will have on the France exchange-traded fund (EWQ).
Nicolas Sarkozy, France's main centre-right candidate and front-runner in the polls and Ségolène Royal, the Socialist candidate, will most likely survive the first round and meet each other head to head in the runoff two weeks later.
It does matter a great deal to markets who wins since both candidates offer approaches that are fairly stark and wide apart. Given France's slow growth, high tax and high unemployment rate, the election of Mr. Sarkozy would likely ignite a market rally for the market and ETF which has not done badly so far this year, up 8.55%. On the other hand, a victory by Ms. Royal could rattle markets and lead to uncertainty.
While many American investors seem to think that France is becoming nothing morte than a tourist attraction, keep in mind that ten of the largest fifty companies in Europe are headquarted in France. They look to the world, not France, for their growth and profits.
My call is Sarkozy over Royal, 52% to 48%.
By Carl Delfeld of the Chartwell ETF Advisor